Change and resilience of the energy trade backbone network in the Belt and Road region

Abstract

[Objective] Energy trade has always been one of the important elements of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) economic and trade cooperation. The analysis of the change and resilience of the BRI energy trade network holds paramount significance for comprehensively understanding the BRI energy trade system and advancing energy cooperation strategies within the region. [Methods] Drawing inspiration from the complex network theory, this study employed a holistic approach to complex network analysis, extracting and scrutinizing the backbone network of energy trade among the BRI countries. By employing multidimensional identification and analysis of the topological characteristics of the backbone network, it measured the resilience response of the BRI energy trade network under different attack strategies. [Results] Structural analyses showed a clear trend of diversification in the backbone network of the BRI energy trade. The backbone structure encompasses major energy-exporting countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Qatar, along with major energy-importing countries like China, India, Singapore, Poland, and Thailand. Change analyses showed that since 2000, the connectivity pattern of the BRI energy trade backbone network has undergone multilevel fluctuations, displaying a more pronounced aggregated form and continuously strengthened links among nodes. The resilience analysis showed that the resilience of the backbone network was positively correlated with the network size. Under random attacks, the resilience of the BRI energy trade backbone network gradually improves. In deliberate attacks, the largest connected subgraph demonstrates a power-law distribution, with a “sharp-slow-sharp” continuous decline trend as the number of failed nodes increases. [Conclusion] The introduction of the BRI has effectively promoted energy trade among countries along the route, and the degree of trade network connectivity has improved. However, a small number of trade nodes still have very strong control, which has a greater impact on the overall energy trade network’s ability to withstand external disturbances.

Keywords

• energy trade|complex network|backbone structure|resilience assessment|belt and road region