Predicting Popularity of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure in Urban Context

Abstract

The availability of charging infrastructure is essential for large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EV). Charging patterns and the utilization of infrastructure have consequences not only for the energy demand by loading local power grids, but influence the economic returns, parking policies and further adoption of EVs. We develop a data-driven approach that exploits predictors compiled from Geographic Information Systems data describing the urban context and urban activities near charging infrastructure to explore correlations with a comprehensive set of indicators that measure the performance of charging infrastructure. The best fit was identified for the size of the unique group of visitors (popularity) attracted by the charging infrastructure. Consecutively, charging infrastructure is ranked by popularity. The question of whether or not a given charging spot belongs to the top tier is posed as a binary classification problem and predictive performance of logistic regression regularized with an l1 penalty, random forests and gradient boosted regression trees is evaluated. Obtained results indicate that the collected predictors contain information that can be used to predict the popularity of charging infrastructure. The significance of predictors and how they are linked with the popularity are explored as well. The proposed methodology can be used to inform charging infrastructure deployment strategies.

Keywords

• Electric vehicles
• data analysis
• charging infrastructure
• spatial analysis
• prediction methods
• machine learning