Environmental Research Letters (Jan 2016)
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment
- Benjamin W Abbott,
- Jeremy B Jones,
- Edward A G Schuur,
- F Stuart Chapin III,
- William B Bowden,
- M Syndonia Bret-Harte,
- Howard E Epstein,
- Michael D Flannigan,
- Tamara K Harms,
- Teresa N Hollingsworth,
- Michelle C Mack,
- A David McGuire,
- Susan M Natali,
- Adrian V Rocha,
- Suzanne E Tank,
- Merritt R Turetsky,
- Jorien E Vonk,
- Kimberly P Wickland,
- George R Aiken,
- Heather D Alexander,
- Rainer M W Amon,
- Brian W Benscoter,
- Yves Bergeron,
- Kevin Bishop,
- Olivier Blarquez,
- Ben Bond-Lamberty,
- Amy L Breen,
- Ishi Buffam,
- Yihua Cai,
- Christopher Carcaillet,
- Sean K Carey,
- Jing M Chen,
- Han Y H Chen,
- Torben R Christensen,
- Lee W Cooper,
- J Hans C Cornelissen,
- William J de Groot,
- Thomas H DeLuca,
- Ellen Dorrepaal,
- Ned Fetcher,
- Jacques C Finlay,
- Bruce C Forbes,
- Nancy H F French,
- Sylvie Gauthier,
- Martin P Girardin,
- Scott J Goetz,
- Johann G Goldammer,
- Laura Gough,
- Paul Grogan,
- Laodong Guo,
- Philip E Higuera,
- Larry Hinzman,
- Feng Sheng Hu,
- Gustaf Hugelius,
- Elchin E Jafarov,
- Randi Jandt,
- Jill F Johnstone,
- Jan Karlsson,
- Eric S Kasischke,
- Gerhard Kattner,
- Ryan Kelly,
- Frida Keuper,
- George W Kling,
- Pirkko Kortelainen,
- Jari Kouki,
- Peter Kuhry,
- Hjalmar Laudon,
- Isabelle Laurion,
- Robie W Macdonald,
- Paul J Mann,
- Pertti J Martikainen,
- James W McClelland,
- Ulf Molau,
- Steven F Oberbauer,
- David Olefeldt,
- David Paré,
- Marc-André Parisien,
- Serge Payette,
- Changhui Peng,
- Oleg S Pokrovsky,
- Edward B Rastetter,
- Peter A Raymond,
- Martha K Raynolds,
- Guillermo Rein,
- James F Reynolds,
- Martin Robards,
- Brendan M Rogers,
- Christina Schädel,
- Kevin Schaefer,
- Inger K Schmidt,
- Anatoly Shvidenko,
- Jasper Sky,
- Robert G M Spencer,
- Gregory Starr,
- Robert G Striegl,
- Roman Teisserenc,
- Lars J Tranvik,
- Tarmo Virtanen,
- Jeffrey M Welker,
- Sergei Zimov
Affiliations
- Benjamin W Abbott
- Université de Rennes 1, OSUR, CNRS, UMR 6553 ECOBIO, France; Institute of Arctic Biology and Department of Biology & Wildlife, University of Alaska Fairbanks , USA
- Jeremy B Jones
- Institute of Arctic Biology and Department of Biology & Wildlife, University of Alaska Fairbanks , USA
- Edward A G Schuur
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University , USA
- F Stuart Chapin III
- Institute of Arctic Biology and Department of Biology & Wildlife, University of Alaska Fairbanks , USA
- William B Bowden
- The Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont , USA
- M Syndonia Bret-Harte
- Institute of Arctic Biology and Department of Biology & Wildlife, University of Alaska Fairbanks , USA
- Howard E Epstein
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia , USA
- Michael D Flannigan
- Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta , Canada
- Tamara K Harms
- Institute of Arctic Biology and Department of Biology & Wildlife, University of Alaska Fairbanks , USA
- Teresa N Hollingsworth
- USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, University of Alaska Fairbanks , USA
- Michelle C Mack
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University , USA
- A David McGuire
- US Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska Fairbanks , USA
- Susan M Natali
- Woods Hole Research Center, USA
- Adrian V Rocha
- Department of Biological Sciences and the Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame , USA
- Suzanne E Tank
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta , Canada
- Merritt R Turetsky
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph , Canada
- Jorien E Vonk
- Department of Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam , The Netherlands
- Kimberly P Wickland
- US Geological Survey, National Research Program, Boulder, CO, USA
- George R Aiken
- US Geological Survey, National Research Program, Boulder, CO, USA
- Heather D Alexander
- Mississippi State University , Forest and Wildlife Research Center, MS 39762, USA
- Rainer M W Amon
- Texas A&M University at Galveston , USA
- Brian W Benscoter
- Florida Atlantic University , USA
- Yves Bergeron
- Forest Research Institute, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue , Canada
- Kevin Bishop
- Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University , Sweden; Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences , Sweden
- Olivier Blarquez
- Département de Géographie, Université de Montréal , Canada
- Ben Bond-Lamberty
- Pacific Northwest National Lab, USA
- Amy L Breen
- Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks , USA
- Ishi Buffam
- University of Cincinnati , USA
- Yihua Cai
- State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University , People’s Republic of China
- Christopher Carcaillet
- Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes, UMR5023 CNRS Lyon 1, France
- Sean K Carey
- McMaster University , Canada
- Jing M Chen
- University of Toronto , Canada
- Han Y H Chen
- Faculty of Natural Resources Management, Lakehead University , Canada
- Torben R Christensen
- Lund University , Arctic Research Centre, Sweden; Aarhus University , Denmark
- Lee W Cooper
- University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science , USA
- J Hans C Cornelissen
- Systems Ecology, VU University , The Netherlands
- William J de Groot
- Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Canada
- Thomas H DeLuca
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington , USA
- Ellen Dorrepaal
- Climate Impacts Research Centre, Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University , Sweden
- Ned Fetcher
- Institute for Environmental Science and Sustainability, Wilkes University , USA
- Jacques C Finlay
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota , USA
- Bruce C Forbes
- Arctic Centre, University of Lapland , Finland
- Nancy H F French
- Michigan Tech Research Institute, Michigan Technological University , USA
- Sylvie Gauthier
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Canada
- Martin P Girardin
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Canada
- Scott J Goetz
- Woods Hole Research Center, USA
- Johann G Goldammer
- Global Fire Monitoring Center, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Germany
- Laura Gough
- Department of Biological Sciences, Towson University , USA
- Paul Grogan
- Department of Biology, Queen’s University , Canada
- Laodong Guo
- University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee , School of Freshwater Sciences, USA
- Philip E Higuera
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana , USA
- Larry Hinzman
- University of Alaska Fairbanks , USA
- Feng Sheng Hu
- Department of Plant Biology and Department of Geology, University of Illinois , USA
- Gustaf Hugelius
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University , Sweden
- Elchin E Jafarov
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder , USA
- Randi Jandt
- Alaska Fire Science Consortium, University of Alaska Fairbanks , USA
- Jill F Johnstone
- Biology Department, University of Saskatchewan , Canada
- Jan Karlsson
- Climate Impacts Research Centre, Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University , Sweden
- Eric S Kasischke
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland , USA
- Gerhard Kattner
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Germany
- Ryan Kelly
- Neptune and Company Inc., USA
- Frida Keuper
- Climate Impacts Research Centre, Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University , Sweden; INRA, AgroImpact UPR1158, France
- George W Kling
- University of Michigan , USA
- Pirkko Kortelainen
- Finnish Environment Institute, Finland
- Jari Kouki
- School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland , Finland
- Peter Kuhry
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University , Sweden
- Hjalmar Laudon
- Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences , Umeå, Sweden
- Isabelle Laurion
- Centre Eau Terre Environnement, Institut national de la recherche scientifique, Canada
- Robie W Macdonald
- Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Institute of Ocean Sciences , Canada
- Paul J Mann
- Department of Geography, Northumbria University , UK
- Pertti J Martikainen
- Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, University of Eastern Finland , Finland
- James W McClelland
- University of Texas at Austin , Marine Science Institute, USA
- Ulf Molau
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg , Sweden
- Steven F Oberbauer
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University , USA
- David Olefeldt
- Department of Revewable Resources, University of Alberta , Canada
- David Paré
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Canada
- Marc-André Parisien
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Canada
- Serge Payette
- Centre d’études Nordiques, Université Laval , Canada
- Changhui Peng
- Center of CEF/ESCER, University of Quebec at Montreal, Canada; State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University , People’s Republic of China
- Oleg S Pokrovsky
- Georesources and Environment, CNRS, Toulouse, France; BIO-GEO-CLIM Laboratory, Tomsk State University , Russia
- Edward B Rastetter
- The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, USA
- Peter A Raymond
- Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, USA
- Martha K Raynolds
- Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks , USA
- Guillermo Rein
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, Imperial College London, UK
- James F Reynolds
- School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University , People’s Republic of China; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University , USA
- Martin Robards
- Wildlife Conservation Society, Arctic Beringia Program, USA
- Brendan M Rogers
- Woods Hole Research Center, USA
- Christina Schädel
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University , USA
- Kevin Schaefer
- National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder , USA
- Inger K Schmidt
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen , Denmark
- Anatoly Shvidenko
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; Sukachev Institute of Forest, Russia
- Jasper Sky
- Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Research, UK
- Robert G M Spencer
- Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science, Florida State University , USA
- Gregory Starr
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama , USA
- Robert G Striegl
- US Geological Survey, National Research Program, Boulder, CO, USA
- Roman Teisserenc
- ECOLAB, Université de Toulouse , CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France
- Lars J Tranvik
- Limnology, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University , Sweden
- Tarmo Virtanen
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki , Finland
- Jeffrey M Welker
- University of Alaska Anchorage , USA
- Sergei Zimov
- Northeast Science Station of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 11,
no. 3
p. 034014
Abstract
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Keywords
