Problemi Ekonomiki (Jun 2018)
Modeling the Demand for Educational Products of Higher Education Institutions in Ukraine
Abstract
Higher education institutions switch to market methods and management models that provide for the reorientation of their activities to the needs of the market. It is found that the negative consequences of the demographic crisis, deterioration of the socio-economic situation, and changing behavior of consumers in the market for higher education products led to a drop in demand for educational products. Insufficient attention from the management of higher education institutions to changing the situation on the market led to deterioration in indicators and results of their functioning. To adapt to new conditions on the market, universities need to intensify marketing activities, direct efforts to form and stimulate demand. It is noted that the adoption of marketing decisions should be based on data on future trends in the development of the situation on the market. The aim of the article is to justify the flow model for determining the annual potential capacity of the market for higher education products and its medium-term forecasting in Ukraine. Taking into account the specificity of the market for higher education products, a method for designing flows of potential applicants is chosen to predict its capacity. Based on the analysis of the state and trends of the market, there identified flows that contribute to the formation of the demand for products of higher education institutions, and flows that lead to its decrease. Using statistical data and the results of content analysis of secondary information, an optimistic, normal, and pessimistic scenario is developed for changing the annual potential capacity of the market for higher education products. Based on the results of expert estimations, it is determined that the probability of a pessimistic scenario is higher. According to this scenario, in 2018-2020 a decrease in the potential capacity of the market for higher education products is expected, which is associated with the increase in the trends of student immigration, loss of prestige of and confidence in higher education, and the development of alternative forms of obtaining knowledge. Under conditions of a high probability of decreasing the potential capacity of the market for higher education products, higher education institutions need to ensure the conditions and opportunities for organizing and managing marketing activities.
