Research on the path of high-quality development of China’s foreign trade in the context of ARDL-based model

Abstract

To explore the path of high-quality development of China’s foreign trade, this paper selects four dimensions of foreign trade foundation, foreign trade competitiveness, foreign trade performance level and foreign trade sustainability based on the characteristics of comparability and strong operability and establishes the evaluation system of foreign trade level by using the improved entropy weight TOPSIS. Based on the evaluation results, the impact of the RMB exchange rate on China’s import and export trade is explored based on the autoregressive distributed lag model, and the lagged residual term of ARDL is modified in combination with the ECM model, which is set for the import direction and export direction respectively. The impact of exchange rate level change on all three types of enterprises has a significant change process, especially for exporting foreign-funded and other types of enterprises. Among them, the coefficient LnY of the export equation for foreign-owned enterprises fluctuated between 2.1 and 2.5 in 2018, and LnReer fluctuated between -1.8 and -1.2.

Keywords

• entropy topsis
• ardl model
• ecm model
• china’s foreign trade
• rmb exchange rate
• 97p26