Modeling the Impact of Different Policies on Electric Vehicle Adoption: An Investigative Study

Abstract

Electric Vehicles (EVs) emerge as a crucial solution for alleviating the environmental footprint of the transportation sector. However, fostering their widespread adoption demands effective, targeted policies. This study introduces a versatile model, amalgamating stakeholders and policies and leveraging local data with broader market applicability. It delineates two key EV adopter groups—innovators and imitators—shedding light on their evolving impact on adoption trends. A pivotal feature of the model is the factoring of EV attractiveness, comprising Life-Cycle Cost (LCC), Driving Range, Charging Time, and infrastructure availability, all of which are expected to improve with the fast technological advancement of EVs. Financial policies, notably subsidies, prove potent in boosting EV adoption but fall short of targeted sales due to imitator lag. In response, a pragmatic solution is proposed: a government-led EV acquisition of 840 EVs, coupled with a 20% subsidy on new EV purchases and a 20% tax on new ICEV purchases, potentially realizing a 30% EV sales target by 2035. Future research avenues may delve into behavioral dynamics prompting imitators’ adoption, optimizing EV infrastructure strategies, and assessing the socio-economic impacts of EVs. Interdisciplinary approaches hold promise for enriched insights for effective EV integration policies.

Keywords

• electric vehicles
• policy analysis
• Bass Diffusion Model
• technology adoption
• Brunei