Modelling exchange rate volatility under jump process and application analysis

Abstract

Exchange rate is an important part of financial markets. Our analysis finds that the fluctuations of exchange rates have several obvious features, such as spikes, thick tails, fluctuation aggregations and asymmetry. Based on this, we build novel GARCH class model by introducing a jumping process to describe the dynamics of their fluctuations. Our empirical results show that the models with jump factors can better characterize the agglomeration and thick tail characteristics of these return fluctuations than the models without jump factors. In particular, the model with double exponential jumps can fully handle and capture the fluctuation characteristics of the returns. Our findings will be useful for individuals and governments to predict exchange rate fluctuations, provide reference for the effective management of exchange rate risk in China, and further improve the financial risk management mechanism.

Keywords

• exchange rate
• jump process
• fluctuations
• garch class models