Increased Predictive Ability of BMI but not Other Risk Factors with Time in Men: 39-Year Follow-Up of Total Mortality in the Oslo Study

Abstract

Objective: Risk factor associations to mortality may change, in part due to removal of high-risk persons. We compared strengths of association and ability of risk factors to predict total mortality across short (Methods: Cardiovascular risk factors were measured in 1972-1973 in the Oslo Study among 14,846 men born in 1923-1932. Relationships of risk factors to mortality (to 2011) were analyzed using Cox regression models, and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were estimated. Results: BMI was the only factor that increased strength of association with elapsed time (hazard ratio for ≥35 kg/m2 vs. 22.5-24.9 kg/m2: 1.25 (95% CI 0.73-2.17), 1.51 (95% CI 1.06-2.16) and 3.73 (95% CI 2.33-5.98) for Discussion: Risk factors differed in association strengths and ability to predict mortality over four decades. BMI strengthened its association with time, while cigarette smoking was strongest in all periods.

Keywords

• BMI
• Blood pressure
• Cholesterol
• Lipids
• Mortality
• Oslo Study
• Physical activity
• Smoking