Presenting a model for determining and discovering the causal relationships between the effective risks of the product family developing process in the Iranian automotive industry

Abstract

Companies are always faced with risks in competing to response diversified needs of markets. Determining the probability of occurrence and how to manage and recognize the risks that cause other risks is always a challenge. The purpose of this study is to manage the effect of uncertainty on expected results and increase of product family developing process success through addressing causal risks that have bigger Conditional probability In this article, the risks of each stage of the product family development process are identified by focusing on the grounded theory based on the responses gathered from 18 experts in Iranian automotive industry Also the effect of the variables was determined through fuzzy cognitive map based on the 18 supplementary questionnaire data in these companies. Then, the conditional probability tables were formed and the probability of each variable was calculated systematically with the help of the Bayesian Belief Networks and causal risk of other risks were identified. The results show that the clustering of customers risk, parts design feature technical risk and modularity risk are specified to this process. The model output, also indicates that the needs risk with the probability of (19.7%), requirement risk (10.52%), and parts design feature technical risk (6.32%) As the causal risk with the highest conditional probability of a negative aspect. The executive managers could achieve greater success by focusing on controlling these three risks that act as the root cause of the next step risks , getting more success and make progress with more certainty .

Keywords

• product family
• developing process
• risk management
• conditional probability of risk
• fuzzy cognition map
• bayesian belief networks