Subsite variation of HPV-related p16-expression in oropharynx cancer: Incidence and prognostic impact in a population-based DAHANCA cohort 1986–2020

Abstract

p16-expression are implemented in the TNM8 classification of oropharyngeal cancer (OPSCC). Based on a nationwide cohort, we provide a detailed description of subsite variation in the age-standardised incidence-rates of OPSCC alongside an evaluation of the prognostic impact of p16-expression according to subsite after primary radiotherapy (RT). Patient/material and methods: A total of 8,462 Danish OPSCC patients from 1986 to 2020 were identified in the DAHANCA-database, and tumours were grouped into ‘tonsil/base of tongue (BOT)’, ‘neighbouring subsites’ and ‘distant subsites’. Subsite-specific age-standardised incidence-rates were calculated, and outcome-analysis (loco-regional control, disease-free survival and overall-survival 5 years after the completion of RT) stratified by p16-status/subsite and restricted to curatively treated patients only (N = 3,387) was performed. Results: A 5-fold increase in the age-standardised incidence of OPSCC was observed and could be ascribed to the rise in p16-positive tumours of tonsil/BOT and neighbouring subsites only as neither the incidence rates nor the proportion of p16-positivity in distant subsites tumours changed over time. The prognostic impact of p16-status for all endpoints differed significantly across tumour subsites with the strongest association found in tonsil/BOT tumours, a diminishing but still significant impact in neighbouring subsite tumours and no significant impact in tumours arising in distant subsites. Interpretation: Our findings suggest that grouping all p16-positive OPSCC as one entity for staging and prognostication, as currently done in TNM8, is too simple as it does not accurately depict the differences in tumour biology and the consequent treatment response.

Keywords

• Oropharyngeal cancer, HPV, subsite, TNM8 classification, radiotherapy, prognosis