Estimation of Economic Spillover Effects under the Hierarchical Structure of Urban Agglomeration Based on Time-Series Night-Time Lights: A Case Study of the Pearl River Delta, China

Abstract

Urban agglomerations are becoming increasingly important in driving economic development in China. Accurate representation of the economic development status and spillover effects of cities within an urban agglomeration is the foundation of and an effective approach for promoting the coordinated development of that agglomeration. However, current studies of economic spillovers tend to focus on urban agglomerations as a whole, and there is a lack of scrutiny and validation of research data. Therefore, this study proposes a framework for detecting economic spillover effects within an urban agglomeration based on a prolonged night-time light dataset. Firstly, we explored the most suitable night-time light index to characterize the economic status. Then, we used this index to construct the economic network and hierarchical structure of the urban agglomeration. Finally, we explored the heterogeneity of spillover effects under the hierarchical structure. The results of a case study in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) urban agglomeration show that (1) the total night-time light in built-up areas (BNTL) has the highest Pearson correlation coefficient with GDP, which is 0.82; (2) there is an obvious hierarchical structure within the PRD; (3) there are significant and sustained economic spillover effects among the core cities, with Guangzhou–Foshan and Shenzhen–Dongguan having more obvious spillover effects; and (4) the economic spillover effects within the three metropolitan areas have different characteristics. The Guangzhou–Foshan–Zhaoqing metropolitan area is closely linked, to apparent differences in the pace of spillover effects. The Shenzhen–Dongguan–Huizhou metropolitan area has strong close linkages, with strong synchronization of spillover effects. The Zhuhai–Zhongshan–Jiangmen metropolitan area has not yet formed a stable synergistic development relationship. Overall, the framework can effectively reveal the hierarchical structure and different characteristics of economic spillovers within urban agglomerations, which can provide a scientific reference for policy making related to the coordinated development of such agglomerations.

Keywords

• spillover effect
• hierarchical structure
• night-time light index
• vector error correction model
• generalized impulse response function
• Pearl River Delta