Whither the US economy?

Abstract

The economic performance of the US is viewed by the majority of professional analysts as being superior to that of other major industrialised countries. Some refer to the recent US experience as the “New Paradigm”, characterized by sustained economic growth, low inflation, low unemployment and low interest rates. The present work, however, highlights indications of a likely future performance which may well be less positive than the one portrayed by this ‘New Paradigm’. The author describes four underlying trends that show that the past economic performance in the US was largely the result of abnormal factors, and that they cannot be sustained. Furthermore, the US may in fact enter into a period of significant recession or stagflation in the future.

Keywords

• United States economic conditions