A Probabilistic Model for Uniform Corrosion in Offshore Steel Structures in Persian Gulf

Abstract

For structural reliability assessment or risk analysis of aging offshore steel structures, it is essential to have a probabilistic model, which contains specific statistical parameters, and predicts long term corrosion loss as a function of time. The aim of this study is to propose such model for offshore jacket platforms in the Persian Gulf. Field measurements for material loss due to uniform corrosion for submerged members in seawater have been collected and statistically analyzed to identify the probability density distribution function for dispersion and variation of corrosion loss value according to the passage of time. To predict the corrosion loss, two probabilistic models with different approaches and time dependent parameters are suggested, based on the statistical analysis results. For a comparative study, the application of aforementioned models on the reliability analysis of a simple plate structure is investigated. Prediction results, obtained from the proposed probabilistic models, are consistent well with filed measurements.

Keywords

• uniform corrosion
• offshore steel structure
• probabilistic model
• structural reliability
• monte carlo simulation