The evaluation of risky investment projects

Abstract

The subject of this investigation are risky investment projects that some project evaluation methods (NPV, AE, IRR etc) are insufficient to be applied to, because the risk of wrong decision-making is considerable. That is the reason why in such cases some other methods taking into account project risk must be implemented. In practice, the NPV and IRR methods are most often used for project evaluation. However, these methods cannot provide reliable evaluation of project cost-effectiveness for the case of risky projects. Therefore, in this paper another combination of methods is proposed that would give a more reliable picture of the project. Using a concrete example, NPV analysis, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation were done. In this way, certain results were arrived at providing a more reliable evaluation of an engineering investment project, which represents the contribution of this paper.

Keywords

• risky project
• npv method
• sensitivity analysis
• monte carlo simulation