Next-Generation EEW Empowered by NDSHA: From Concept to Implementation
Yan Zhang,
Zhongliang Wu,
Fabio Romanelli,
Franco Vaccari,
Changsheng Jiang,
Shanghua Gao,
Jiawei Li,
Vladimir G. Kossobokov,
Giuliano F. Panza
Affiliations
Yan Zhang
Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Zhongliang Wu
Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China
Fabio Romanelli
Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China
Franco Vaccari
Department of Mathematics and Geosciences, University of Trieste, 34128 Trieste, Italy
Changsheng Jiang
Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Shanghua Gao
Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China
Jiawei Li
Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen 518055, China
Vladimir G. Kossobokov
Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117997 Moscow, Russia
Giuliano F. Panza
Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China
In this paper, we discuss a possible combination of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA), and propose a new warning model, EEW2.0. The aim is to provide a differentiated warning alert to various end-users based on the results of seismic hazard assessment evaluation. The implementation of such a system contains three basic steps: (a) classification of “potential to cause hazard” in terms of magnitude; (b) determination of the source areas and building a hazard database in terms of Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) maps, considering all possible earthquake scenarios in the source area, for the whole protected area; (3) equipping unique decision framework for specific end-users. When a damaging earthquake (M ≥ 5.0) is detected, EEW2.0 quickly matches the prepared MMI map by estimated magnitude and epicenter, then directly extracts the MMI value and issues an early warning to the public. With the great attention and resources put into the reduction in seismic and its secondary risk in the 21st century, the proposed EEW2.0 will likely play an active role in protecting lives and reducing economic losses.
