Multimodel estimates of the changes in the Baltic Sea ice cover during the present century

Abstract

We project changes in the annual maximum ice extent and the maximum coastal fast ice thickness in the Baltic Sea during the ongoing century. The influence of future warming on the ice conditions was assessed using the November–March Baltic coastal mean temperature as a predictor for the annual maximum ice extent (MIB), and the local freezing degree-day sum as a predictor for the fast ice thickness. Future winter temperatures were derived by adjusting observational baseline-period temperatures in accordance with temperature projections based on 28 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, the ensemble-mean trend of MIB is −6400 km2/10 yr, and from the 2060s onwards in a typical winter MIB remains below 80×103 km2. If the RCP8.5 scenario is realised, the corresponding estimates are −10 900 km2/10 yr for the trend and 60×103 km2 for a typical MIB. For cold rather than typical winters, the projected rate of decrease in MIB is even faster. During the late century under RCP8.5, in 9 out of 10 yr the ice would only cover 5–20% of the total sea area. The projected trends in the mean annual maximum ice thickness are −7.6 … −3.3 cm/10 yr, depending on location and applied scenario. In the 2040s under both scenarios, and in the 2080s under RCP4.5, the ice thickness may still exceed 60 cm in the northernmost Bay of Bothnia, while elsewhere in the Gulf of Bothnia and in the Gulf of Finland, it will vary between about 10 and 40 cm. In the 2080s under RCP8.5, virtually no ice occurs outside the Bay of Bothnia. For both the ice extent and thickness, the spread among the responses based on the temperature projections of individual GCMs is considerable. Nonetheless, a robust finding is that the Baltic Sea is unlikely to become totally ice-free during this century.

Keywords

• sea ice extent
• ice thickness
• climate change
• CMIP5 models
• inter-model differences
• inter-annual variability