Analyzing the Basic Factors, Accounting of Which Be Necessary for an Efficient Medium-Term Forecast of the Value-Added Tax Revenues in Ukraine

Abstract

The article is aimed at analyzing the basic factors, accounting of which be necessary for an efficient medium-term forecast of the value-added tax revenues in Ukraine. The study was implemented using the analogy and systematization methods, in-depth statistical analysis of legislative sources. Proven is the assumption that, when analyzing the fiscal efficiency of VAT, it is necessary to take into account that the actual levels of the dynamic tax revenue series change under the influence of various factors, deviating from the main tendency of development. Evaluation of such fluctuations can therefore allow for making adjustments to the built forecasts and respond more quickly to unforeseen situations. An important component of the medium-term forecasting of VAT is the assessment of macro-financial risks and building of a risk-oriented system of the medium-term forecasting of budget revenues. The components of increasing the efficiency of VAT in Ukraine in terms of ensuring the functioning of the tax control system are proposed. Resulting from the carried out research, it is identified that a risk-oriented medium-term VAT forecasting system should be directed towards minimizing the risks of budget revenues, which are based on: taking appropriate steps to implement Income part of the budget by means of the VAT; developing a financial monitoring system and introducing instruments to counter tax evasion; improving the mechanism of the functioning of VAT, etc. Therefore, improving the efficiency of VAT forecasting and planning should be ensured by developing realistic macro-economic forecasts; application of modern computer-based methods of forecasting and planning of VAT and harmonizing the national legislation with the EU regulations.

Keywords

• value-added tax
• medium-term forecast
• efficiency
• tax rate
• factor
• incomes