Future Evolution of Agroclimatic Indicators over a Viticulture Area in Greece

Abstract

This study aims to provide insight regarding the future evolution of a series of important agroclimatic indicators for a specific farming area of viticulture in Stimagka, Greece. The calculated indicators cover various aspects of the climate and its impact on agriculture and can be categorized into four broad categories: temperature-, precipitation-, drought-, and animal comfort-related indicators. An ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate model simulations with a spatial resolution of 12 km are used to calculate the indicators for the period 1986–2055. For the period 2006–2055, two scenarios of possible future evolution of anthropogenic greenhouse gases are used: rcp4.5 and rcp8.5. Results indicate a clear future increase in temperature-related indicators in the region and also more persistent drought conditions.

Keywords

• agroclimatic indicators
• climate change
• agriculture
• drought
• animal comfort