First Expert Elicitation of Knowledge on Drivers of Emergence of Bovine Besnoitiosis in Europe
Claude Saegerman,
Julien Evrard,
Jean-Yves Houtain,
Jean-Pierre Alzieu,
Juana Bianchini,
Serge Eugène Mpouam,
Gereon Schares,
Emmanuel Liénard,
Philippe Jacquiet,
Luca Villa,
Gema Álvarez-García,
Alessia Libera Gazzonis,
Arcangelo Gentile,
Laurent Delooz
Affiliations
Claude Saegerman
Research Unit of Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Applied to Veterinary Science (UREAR-ULiège), Fundamental and Applied Research for Animals & Health (FARAH) Center, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Liege, 4000 Liege, Belgium
Julien Evrard
Regional Association for Animal Registration and Health (ARSIA) asbl, 5590 Ciney, Belgium
Jean-Yves Houtain
Regional Association for Animal Registration and Health (ARSIA) asbl, 5590 Ciney, Belgium
Jean-Pierre Alzieu
Laboratoire Vétérinaire Départemental de l’Ariège (LVD09), 09008 Foix, Ariège, France
Juana Bianchini
Research Unit of Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Applied to Veterinary Science (UREAR-ULiège), Fundamental and Applied Research for Animals & Health (FARAH) Center, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Liege, 4000 Liege, Belgium
Serge Eugène Mpouam
School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Ngaoundere, Ngaoundere P.O. Box 454, Cameroon
Gereon Schares
Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Bundesforschungsinstitut für Tiergesundheit, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, 17493 Greifswald, Insel Riems, Germany
Emmanuel Liénard
UMR INTHERES/DGER, Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire de Toulouse, CEDEX 03, 31076 Toulouse, France
Philippe Jacquiet
UMR INRA/DGER IHAP 1225, Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire de Toulouse, CEDEX 03, 31076 Toulouse, France
Luca Villa
Department of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via dell’Università 6, 26900 Lodi, Italy
Gema Álvarez-García
SALUVET Group, Animal Health Department, Faculty of Veterinary Sciences, Complutense University of Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Alessia Libera Gazzonis
Department of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via dell’Università 6, 26900 Lodi, Italy
Arcangelo Gentile
Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, University of Bologna, 40064 Ozzano Emilia, BO, Italy
Laurent Delooz
Research Unit of Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Applied to Veterinary Science (UREAR-ULiège), Fundamental and Applied Research for Animals & Health (FARAH) Center, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Liege, 4000 Liege, Belgium
Bovine besnoitiosis (BB) is a chronic and debilitating parasitic disease in cattle caused by the protozoan parasite Besnoitia besnoiti. South European countries are affected and have reported clinical cases of BB. However, BB is considered as emerging in other countries/regions of central, eastern and northern Europe. Yet, data on drivers of emergence of BB in Europe are scarce. In this study, fifty possible drivers of emergence of BB in cattle were identified. A scoring system was developed per driver. Then, the scoring was elicited from eleven recognized European experts to: (i) allocate a score to each driver, (ii) weight the score of drivers within each domain and (iii) weight the different domains among themselves. An overall weighted score was calculated per driver, and drivers were ranked in decreasing order of importance. Regression tree analysis was used to group drivers with comparable likelihoods to play a role in the emergence of BB in cattle in Europe. Finally, robustness testing of expert elicitation was performed for the seven drivers having the highest probability to play a key role in the emergence of BB: i.e., (i) legal/illegal movements of live animals from neighbouring/European Union member states or (ii) from third countries, (iii) risk of showing no clinical sign and silent spread during infection and post infection, (iv) as a consequence, difficulty to detect the emergence, (v) existence of vectors and their potential spread, (vi) European geographical proximity of the pathogen/disease to the country, and (vii) animal density of farms. Provided the limited scientific knowledge on the topic, expert elicitation of knowledge, multi-criteria decision analysis, cluster and sensitivity analyses are very important to prioritize future studies, e.g., the need for quantitative import risk assessment and estimation of the burden of BB to evidence and influence policymaking towards changing (or not) its status as a reportable disease, with prevention and control activities targeting, firstly, the top seven drivers. The present methodology could be applied to other emerging animal diseases.
