Dynamic relationship among CO2 emission, agricultural productivity and food security in Nigeria

Abstract

The study analyzed the dynamic relationship among CO2 emission (CE), agricultural productivity (AGP), and food security (FS) in Nigeria. The study used annual time series data spanning from 1961 to 2010. Results based on Augmented Dickey and Fuller and Phillip and Perron tests showed that the series are integrated of order one, I(1). Johansen cointegration test was employed to examine the long run relationship. Results show there is no long run relationship among the three variables. Evidence based on the VAR estimates and the impulse response functions shows that there is a negative and significant short run relationship between CO2 and AGP and between CO2 and FS. Also the variance decomposition analyses showed that over time, CE contributed about 23 and 22 percent to the variation in AGP and FS, respectively. Further, analysis based on Granger causality test indicated that there was a unidirectional causality from CE to AGP and also from CE to FS. Policies that will assist in the mitigation of CE including investment in research and development, cap and trade system, carbon tax policy, adoption of clean power plan, and other regulatory measures are recommended.

Keywords

• co2 emission
• agricultural productivity
• food security
• dynamics