Bìznes Inform (May 2020)
Methodological Problems of the Macro-Economic Regulation
Abstract
The article discusses the problem of conformity of existing macro-economic models to possible changes in the behavior of economic actors, which may affect the micro- and macro-functions used in these models. A historical excursion of the formation of «adaptive» and «rational expectations» in the process of macro-economic regulation is carried out. Several institutional factors that influence its effectiveness and predictability of results are allocated. The possibility of making the right decisions is displayed, if the expectations of economic actors are based on past experience, are constantly checked in the course of economic activity, and the subjective valuations of the future status of markets and prices coincide with the conditional mathematically calculated expectations based on the information currently available. Rational expectations are seen as an addition to the macro-economic theory. They provide greater accuracy to the macro-economic forecasts and grounds for decision-making by economic actors in the process of macro-economic forecasting and regulation. The methodological limitations of the neoclassical model of macro-economic equilibrium are shown and the need for an institutional model of «limited rationality» is proved. The possibility of a realistic assessment of the projected results of macro-economic intervention in the reproductive process is related to the presence in the macro-economic model of behavioral functions, which more accurately reflect the real individual and economic behavior of economic actors. The authors rise the question of the synthesis of new macro-economics and institutionalism to create more realistic models of human behavior, to accurately parameterize future economic conditions and prices in the process of macro-economic regulation.
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