Modelarea dinamicii temporale a doborâturilor produse de vânt, prin metoda evenimentelor extreme [Modeling of temporal dynamics of windthrow by extreme events method]

Abstract

This paper presents a likehood model for estimating the risk of windthrow by extreme value analysis. We use the Gumbel model for modelling the catastrophic windthrow at the European level through that we can estimate the probability to appear wind damage with k intensity in a t time period. The return period of a wind damage with an intensity above 1 million m 3 is 3.6 years, and above 10 million m3 is 8.5 years

Keywords

• windthrow
• extreme value
• Gumbel model