Segmental Degradation RUL Prediction of IGBT Based on Combinatorial Prediction Algorithms

Abstract

Aiming at the segmentation nonlinear degradation characteristics of IGBT, the traditional single remaining useful lifetime (RUL) method has low accuracy. This paper proposes a method combining gray prediction and particle filter algorithm. The gray prediction model is used for slow degradation trends prediction in the early stage. When the health precusor parameters reach the fault warning line, the improved particle filter algorithm is used for this stage’s prediction with the characteristics of fast nonlinear degradation. The comparison analysis result shows that the combinatorial prediction algorithms used in this paper can be better for tracking the degradation trends of IGBT, and the prediction accuracy is higher than either of the two single prediction methods.

Keywords

• IGBT
• power cycling
• accelerated aging
• gray prediction
• particle filter
• RUL prediction