Regression Model-Based Short-Term Load Forecasting for Load Despatch Centre

Abstract

Forecasting load is an integral part of the planning, operation, and control of power systems. This paper is part of a research effort aimed at developing better energy demand forecasting models for load dispatch centers (LDCs) in Indian states as part of an ambitious project utilizing artificial intelligence-based load forecasting models. In this paper, we present a half hourly load forecasting method for the energy management system of the project that will be used at 33 /11 kV and 0.415 kV substations with good accuracy. The paper uses the half-hourly load consumption dataset collected from MSEDCL for Maharashtra from July 1, 2020 through August 31, 2022. This paper evaluates 24 regression model-based half hourly based load forecasting algorithms for ALE PHATA load based on the load consumption dataset and the collected meteorological dataset. The 24 models in MATLAB Regression belong to five types of regression models: Linear Regression, Regression Trees, Support Vector Machines (SVM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Ensemble of Trees, and Neural Networks. As a consequence of their nonparametric kernel-based probabilistic nature, the GPR family of models demonstrates the best load forecasting performance. Least squares estimation was used to determine the regression coefficients. There is a direct correlation between load in an electrical power system and temperature, due point, and seasons, as well as a correlation between load and previous load consumption. Therefore, the input variables are Wet Bulb Temperature at 2 Meters (C), Dew/Frost Point at 2 Meters (C), Temperature at 2 Meters (C), Relative Humidity at 2 Meters (%), Specific Humidity at 2 Meters (g/kg) and Wind Speed at 10 Meters (m/s). The mean absolute percentage error and the R squared are used to validate or verify the accuracy of the model, which is shown in the results section. Based on this study, two GPR models are recommended for load forecasting, the Rational Quadratic GPR and the Exponential GPR and Exponential GPR as final model.

Keywords

• Short-term load forecasting
• regression model
• Gaussian process regression
• probabilistic models
• Subdivision electricity load