Статистика и экономика (Jul 2019)
Regulation of inflationary processes in the conditions of open economy (on the example of economy of the Republic of Tajikistan)
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to identify the characteristics of methods for regulating inflation processes in an open economy. In this regard, the article discusses in detail such issues as, features of inflationary processes in an open economy, the specifics of the impact of external factors on the level of inflation. On the example of the economy of the Republic of Tajikistan, the peculiarities of the influence of the dynamics of the exchange rate and foreign trade factor on the inflation rate are considered, the main factors influencing the dynamics of the national currency exchange rate are identified, the problem of regulating inflation tendencies in conditions of high import dependence is studied.The theoretical basis for this study was the work of foreign and domestic scientists on the problems of inflation in an open economy, the impact of the exchange rate on inflationary processes, and the anti-inflationary monetary policy under conditions of high import dependence. Statistical data of the National Bank of the Republic of Tajikistan website - www.nbt.tj and the Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan - www.stat.tj for 2000-2019 were used as an information database.Results. The main factors of inflation in an open economy are identified. The mechanism of direct and indirect influence of foreign economic factors, in particular the exchange rate on inflationary processes, is investigated. The main factors of inflation and the mechanism of their influence on the example of the Republic of Tajikistan are investigated. The significant influence of external factors (imports, cash flow, exchange rate, dynamics of the Russian ruble) on inflationary processes and economic development of the Republic of Tajikistan has been revealed. The study shows that import is a factor that holds back inflationary trends in the country, external cash flows form domestic demand, influence the dynamics of the Somoni rate, and thereby affect the inflation rate. The significance of the Somoni exchange rate in regulating inflation processes has been determined. Significant influence of external factors on the formation of the Somoni exchange rate also was revealed. Based on the correlation and regression analysis, a close relationship is established between the dynamics of the Tajik Somoni and the Russian ruble. The article studies the peculiarity of the use of monetary policy in order to stimulate domestic production and export.The results of the study show that in the conditions of the Republic of Tajikistan, foreign economic factors, in particular the exchange rate, largely determine inflationary trends. On this basis, an objective need arises to maintain the stability of the national currency in order to curb inflation and ensure the stability of economic development. The study showed that the dynamics of the exchange rate of Somoni largely determined by external than internal factors. For this reason, the presence of a significant effect of the exchange rate on inflationary trends in the long term may lead to undesirable consequences that are associated with the problem of regulating the exchange rate.
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