Asymmetric Dipole Trends in Geodynamo Models and the Paleomagnetic Field

Abstract

Abstract Temporal trends in the paleomagnetic dipole moment exhibit the property of positive skewness. On average, positive trends are larger and occur less frequently than negative trends over timescales of several tens of kyr. We explore the origin of this property using numerical geodynamo models. A suite of models reveals that skewness arises for a restricted set of boundary conditions. Models driven by heat flow at the top and bottom boundaries exhibit very little skewness, whereas models driven solely by heat flow on the lower boundary produce significant positive skewness. Further increases in skewness occur in the presence of thermal stratification at the top of the core. The level of skewness in the geodynamo models is correlated with estimates of upwelling near the core‐mantle boundary. Sustained upwelling is expected to increase magnetic‐flux expulsion, contributing to higher levels of skewness. Similar behavior is recovered from stochastic models in which the dipole is generated by a random series of cyclonic convection events. Skewness in the stochastic models is quantitatively similar to estimates from the geodynamo models when the average recurrence time of the convection events is 100 years. Extending the stochastic models to the paleomagnetic field implies a longer recurrence time of 1,000 years or more. We interpret this recurrence time in terms of the timing of flux‐expulsion events rather than individual convective events. Abrupt increases in the dipole moment from flux expulsion can produce skewed trends on timescales of tens of kyr.

Keywords

• paleomagnetic dipole moment
• statistics of time variations
• geodynamo models
• stochastic models