Compound and cascading droughts and heatwaves decrease maize yields by nearly half in Sinaloa, Mexico

Abstract

Abstract The impact of droughts and heatwaves on agriculture losses has been exacerbated by the occurrence of compound and cascading events. Here we present a study that evaluates the impact of these events both as singly and as compound and cascading on maize yield in Sinaloa Mexico from 1990 to 2022, using the WOFOST crop model. Drought and heatwave events were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index and threshold method, respectively. Results show that yield reduction (25%) is found during extreme drought events, emphasizing the vulnerability of maize farming to unfavorable drought conditions. While heatwaves alone did not show a significant impact on maize yields, the compound and cascading droughts and heatwaves amplified the loss of maize yields by up to 44% compared to normal conditions. This study highlights the need for adaptive strategies in agriculture to sustain food security during extreme events, especially in the context of multi hazard framework.