Stochastic planning of integrated energy system based on correlation scenario generation method via Copula function considering multiple uncertainties in renewable energy sources and demands

Abstract

Abstract The main goal of integrated energy service providers (IESP) in the future is to pursue profitability and reduce carbon emissions while ensuring sufficient energy supply. However, the multiple uncertainties associated with renewable energy resources and the multi‐energy consumers pose significant challenges in the optimal planning of the integrated energy system (IES) based on energy hubs (EH). This includes the global optimization of device types, EH capacity, and the optional interconnections between adjacent EHs. This study aims to develop a comprehensive mathematical model of EH that considers the temperature limitations on device operation. The thermal bus and associated devices are divided into high and low temperature parts, and a multi‐scenario stochastic programming model is proposed for IES planning. Scenarios are generated using non‐parametric kernel density estimation and the Copula function, a scenario reduction technique is implemented to alleviate computational burden. Additionally, case studies illustrate effectiveness of the proposed approach, the operation and forms of EHs, effect of the interconnections and the trade‐off between carbon emissions and economic costs are further studied by extensive simulations. This study can be a good guide for IESPs to invest in the construction of the EH‐based IES.

Keywords

• distributed power generation
• energy management systems
• planning
• renewable energy sources
• stochastic programming