Researching Dependence of Indicators of Sevastopol Strategic Plan on Restrictive Measures of International Character: Regional Aspect

Abstract

The changing situation in the world and fast arising threats and challenges stimulated investigations concerning the impact of different barriers on regional development and findings ways of their overcoming. The goal of the research is to identify and substantiate the dependence between indicators of social and economic development of the region and restrictive measures of international character. The empiric basis of the research is formed by expert method using binary logics of estimation and content-analysis; correlative-regressive analysis. In order to find a certain interconnection 184 indicators of Sevastopol strategic plan were studied. Results of the research showed that 51% (on average) of indicators of the strategic plan of social and economic development in Sevastopol depended directly or indirectly on restrictive measures of international character. The authors used statistic sampling of economic development indicators, which are affected most of all by restrictive measures of international character and plotted correlative-regressive models of the gross regional product dependence on the amount of investment in fixed capital; the amount of investment into fixed capital dependence on foreign trade turnover in the region. These models can be used to forecast strategic development of the region. The practical importance of the research is connected with elaborated forecast models as independent analytical tool for regional governance. The advanced approach to estimating social and economic development of the region in conditions of restrictive barriers of international character worked out on the basis of identifying factors influencing gross regional product and investment into fixed capital in the region can help accurately and truly estimate the impact of measures and tools of regional policy on social and economic development of the region in conditions of sanctions and restrictions.

Keywords

• regional development
• social and economic indicators of development
• restrictions
• sanctions
• forecasting
• correlation
• regression
• models of interrelations