Heliyon (Nov 2024)
Bayesian mixture model for accurate assessment of monthly maximum wind speed: A case study in Gwadar
Abstract
Assessment of monthly maximum wind speed (MMWS) is essential in various environmental disciplines, including architectural risk assessment, climatology, renewable energy sources, building design, and agricultural activities. The distribution of wind speed is an important module of its development. Presently, several mixing distributions have been suggested for fitting the theoretical maximum wind speed distributions. However, the drawback of various distribution elements is the outcome of numerous fitting presentations, and it is challenging to choose the best form of single distribution to employ when building a hybrid model. In order to solve those difficulties, utilizing the mixtures of Sine-skewed-von Mises distributions (MSS-VM) with various prior parameter distributions is extended in the present study. In this research, the assessment of MMWS employing the maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) method is taken into consideration for the wind speed data from the Pakistan province of Baluchistan Gwadar station. The results of the Anderson Darling (AD), Chi-square, BIC, and AIC tests, as well as the Kolmogorov Smirnov (KS) test, indicated that MSS-VM was the best distribution for the Gwadar station. The suggested models automatically find the optimum number of elements, in addition to having more appropriate performance. The outcomes demonstrate that MSS-VM performance is more suitable than other heterogeneous and single-distribution models. The design estimations derived using the Bayesian mixture distribution provide a sense of the highest wind speed that will occur across a particular area. It is therefore crucial for designers and policymakers in the planning, designing, and building of various structures.
