THE NEXUS BETWEEN REVENUES, REAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES AND AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY EXPORTS: THE CASE OF TURKEY, MEXICO, AND GERMANY

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of importing country’s revenue (GDP per capita) and the relative exchange rate between the importing country and the exporting country on the automotive exports of Turkey, Mexico and Germany. For this purpose, three separate models were fitted for each country and the empirical results reveal that the impact of revenue and real exchange rates on the amount of automotive exports were not statistically significant for Mexico. For Turkey, it has been determined that the revenue of the importing country has a positive effect on Turkey's automotive exports, on the other hand, exchange rates have a negative effect as expected. For Germany, the revenues variable had a statistically significant positive impact, whereas the impact of real exchange rates was statistically significant and negative. Depending on this result, it can be stated that an increase in the incomes of the importing countries will positively affect the automotive exports of Turkey and Germany. On the other hand, it can be stated that a competitive exchange rate is important for the automotive exports of these countries.

Keywords

• automotive industry
• exports
• panel data analysis
• real foreign exchange rates