مجله اپیدمیولوژی ایران (Jun 2018)
Forecasting Death Trend of Endocrine, Nutritional, and Metabolic Diseases in Iran during 2006 to 2035
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Among non-communicable diseases, endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases have increased in recent decades, especially in developing countries. This study was conducted to evaluate and predict deaths from this group of diseases in Iran Methods: In this analytical cross-sectional study, the study population comprised all deaths of endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases recorded in the Ministry of Health and Medical Education during the years 2006 to 2016. In order to forecast the trend of cause of death, the Lee Carter model was employed in the demographic package 18/1 of the R software version 3/3/1. Results: The death rate from endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases increased in all age and sex groups from 2006 to 2015. It was predicted that death rate of this group of diseases would reach 197/71 in 100,000 in the total population, 202/97 in 100,000 women, and 188/99 in 100,000 men in 2035. Conclusion: Several factors play a role in endocrine and metabolic diseases, one of which is aging and aging population. Considering the change in the age structure of the population of Iran by 2035 and the increase in population’s age, an increasing trend is expected in the mortality rate due to these diseases. Because of this rapid increase, policymakers need to adopt intergovernmental population-based plans and policies in this regard.
