Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response (JRACR) (Jun 2024)
Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Farmer Households in Flood and Earthquake Prone Areas Based on Multidimensional Information Diffusion Model
Abstract
In recent years, the global practice of regional natural disaster reduction and comprehensive risk prevention has promoted the integration of multiple disciplines, and the theory and technology of comprehensive risk assessment for multiple natural disaster chains urgently need innovation. This article is based on multiple natural disaster chain scenarios and sets secondary indicators for multiple influencing factors based on the first level indicators composed of basic risk factors such as hazard factors, vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies, and disaster prevention and reduction capabilities. By using multidimensional information diffusion technology, multiple hazard factor hazard combination factors, vulnerability combination factors of disaster bearing bodies, and comprehensive disaster prevention and reduction capability combination factors reflecting various natural disaster scenarios are constructed, A household comprehensive risk assessment index system for multi-dimensional information diffusion assessment of natural disaster comprehensive risk was designed by quantifying risk factors such as the intensity of comprehensive disaster causing factors, vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies, and comprehensive disaster prevention and reduction capabilities in disaster scenarios. This paper expands the traditional information diffusion comprehensive risk assessment model, makes up for the lack of information on geographical units, establishes a multi impact factor multi dimension natural disaster risk comprehensive assessment model for multi risk factors of complex disaster scenarios with small samples, obtains the theoretical value of multi-dimensional information Diffusion model comprehensive risk assessment for complex disaster scenarios, breaks through the sample size limit of natural disaster risks, and makes up for the lack of information on small samples of small probability events, Improved the reliability and accuracy of comprehensive risk assessment for multiple natural disaster chains. Then, take the disaster scenario formed by the comprehensive risk of earthquake and flood in a place in the upper reaches of the Fujiang River basin as the analysis sample, calculate the comprehensive risk assessment value of flood and earthquake damage in the study area's micro samples (rural households in villages and towns). By comparison, it is found that the comprehensive risk value assessed by the multi-dimensional information Diffusion model has good reliability and high accuracy, which is significantly better than the traditional Kriging interpolation method and geographical weighted regression method. This article provides a comprehensive risk assessment of natural disasters at the micro household level, which can better reflect the diversity and regionality of risks, help clarify the hidden risks of rural natural disasters, and provide scientific basis for government emergency management decision-making.
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