The composite development and structure of intense synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones

Abstract

Understanding the location and intensity of hazardous weather across the Arctic is important for assessing risks to infrastructure, shipping, and coastal communities. Key hazards driving these risks are extreme near-surface winds, high ocean waves, and heavy precipitation, which are dependent on the structure and development of intense synoptic-scale cyclones. This study aims to describe the typical lifetime, structure, and development of a large sample of past intense winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones using a storm compositing methodology applied to the ERA5 reanalysis. Results show that the composite development and structure of intense summer Arctic cyclones are different from those of intense winter Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean extra-tropical cyclones and from those described in conceptual models of extra-tropical and Arctic cyclones. The composite structure of intense summer Arctic cyclones shows that they typically undergo a structural transition around the time of maximum intensity from having a baroclinic structure to an axi-symmetric cold-core structure throughout the troposphere, with a low-lying tropopause and large positive temperature anomaly in the lower stratosphere. Summer Arctic cyclones are also found to have longer lifetimes than winter Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean extra-tropical cyclones, potentially causing prolonged hazardous and disruptive weather conditions in the Arctic.