Development of a predictive model for the U-shaped relationship between the triglyceride glycemic index and depression using machine learning (NHANES 2009–2018)

Abstract

Background: At present, the relationship between depression and the triglyceride glycemic (TyG) index remains a topic of debate. This study sought to elucidate the relationship between depression and the TyG index to create a predictive model that would help doctors diagnose patients. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study utilizing the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) dataset, which comprises data from 2009 to 2018. The analysis involved 11,222 adults with a Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) score of 5 or higher, indicating the presence of depression. As part of the analysis, multiple regression models were used to test whether a linear relationship existed between the TyG index and depression. A threshold effects analysis was used to generate smoothed curves and detect nonlinear correlations. Additionally, the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression were employed to identify the key risk factors associated with depression. The factors identified were then used to construct the risk prediction nomogram. Finally, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the discriminative performance of the model. Results: Multivariable linear regression analysis indicated a strong positive correlation between depression and the TyG index (β: 0.38, 95 % CI: 0.16–0.60, p = 0.0008). A U-shaped relationship with an inflection point was observed at a TyG index of 8.16. The nomogram model, constructed using risk factors identified by LASSO, exhibited a significant predictive value (AUC = 0.888). Conclusions: The results of this investigation point to a U-shaped association between depression risk and the TyG index among Americans. Those with a TyG index of over 8.16 are significantly more likely to develop depression. These results suggest a possible causal relationship and emphasize the importance of monitoring the TyG index in depression risk assessment.

Keywords

• NHANES
• Machine learning
• TyG index
• Depression
• PHQ-9
• LASSO