Reference financial cycle in Colombia

Abstract

In this paper we date recession and expansion phases for several financial variables in Colombia and construct a reference financial cycle for the economy. The selected variables include the stock market index (IGBC), the ratio of total loans to GDP, the ratio of consumption loans to GDP, and the return on assets (ROA) of bank institutions. The degree of synchronization between the financial cycle and some market and real variables, such as the passive market interest rate, is also analyzed. We conclude that three complete financial cycles have occurred from 1990 to 2013. Also, we find evidence favoring the existence of a relationship between the real and the financial cycles, and between the latter and the market interest rate.

Keywords

• financial cycles
• classic cycles
• synchronization
• real cycle
• Colombia
• cycles in emerging economies