Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections

Nalini Chintalapudi; Gopi Battineni; Francesco Amenta

Results in Physics (Sep 2021)

Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections

Nalini Chintalapudi,
Gopi Battineni,
Francesco Amenta

Affiliations

Nalini Chintalapudi: Telemedicine and Tele Pharmacy Centre, School of Medicinal and Health Products Sciences, University of Camerino, Camerino 62032, Italy
Gopi Battineni: Telemedicine and Tele Pharmacy Centre, School of Medicinal and Health Products Sciences, University of Camerino, Camerino 62032, Italy; Corresponding author at: Telemedicine and Tele Pharmacy Centre, Via Madonna Della Carceri 9, School of Medicinal and Health Products Sciences, University of Camerino, Camerino 62032, Italy.
Francesco Amenta: Telemedicine and Tele Pharmacy Centre, School of Medicinal and Health Products Sciences, University of Camerino, Camerino 62032, Italy; Research Department, International Radio Medical Centre (C.I.R.M.), Rome 00144, Italy

Journal volume & issue: Vol. 28
p. 104604

Abstract

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The second wave of a novel coronavirus in Italy has caused 247,369 new cases and 1782 deaths only in October 2020. This significantly alarming infectious disease controlling board to impose again mitigation measures for controlling the epidemic growth. In this paper, we estimate the latest COVID-19 reproduction number (R_0) and project the epidemic size for the future 45 days. The R_0 value has calculated as 2.83 (95% CI: 1.5–4.2) and the cumulative incidences 100,015 (95% CI; 73,201–100,352), and daily incidences might be reached up to 15,012 (95% CI: 8234–16,197) respectively.

Published in Results in Physics

ISSN: 2211-3797 (Online)
Publisher: Elsevier
Country of publisher: Netherlands
LCC subjects: Science: Physics
Website: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/results-in-physics/

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