Spatiotemporal Changes in and Forces Driving Ozone Concentration in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (Jing–Jin–Ji) Region from 2015 to 2022

Abstract

This study aims to explore the factors affecting variation in ozone concentration, using ozone concentration monitoring data from the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (Jing–Jin–Ji) region from 2015 to 2022. The characteristics of the spatial and temporal variation in ozone concentration, as well as the impact of meteorological and land-use types on this variation, were investigated. Seasonally, ozone concentrations in the Jing–Jin–Ji region were highest in summer, followed by spring and autumn, and were lowest in winter. Spatially, a characteristic trend of lower concentrations in urban centers and higher concentrations in suburban areas was found. From the results of correlation analysis and a stepwise regression model, temperature and solar radiation were found to be the primary factors affecting seasonal variations in ozone concentration, explaining 67.9% of the variance. Additionally, the results of geographically weighted regression models confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of temperature and solar radiation on ozone concentration. In urban centers, such as Beijing and Tianjin, temperature and solar radiation more strongly influenced ozone concentration. To determine the factors driving this spatial heterogeneity, a geodetector was employed to analyze the impact of various geographical factors on the spatial distribution of ozone concentration. In winter, the impact of various factors of urbanization, such as lighting index, population density, and construction land, as well as air quality factors (PM2.5 and NO2), on ozone concentration was stronger, with q values greater than 0.2. However, in autumn, the influence of these factors on ozone concentration weakened. Furthermore, the results of the two-factor interaction detection analysis showed that the q values for the interaction between urban and air quality factors ranged between 0.40 and 0.47, which were substantially higher than those for other interactions. This further confirmed the strong influence of urban activities on ozone concentration.

Keywords

• ozone
• stepwise regression analysis
• geographically weighted regression
• geodetector