Debt Resilience Dynamics: Exploring Vulnerability of Macrosystem

Abstract

The article on the contemporary approach analysis of sovereign debt reveals the basic structures of national economy alternative financing. The methodology of system dynamics is applied to explain the sovereign debt burden pressure feedback process. The main effects of resilience to external shocks are explored. The problem of dynamic balancing between long-term economic development and short-term financial stability is detected. The analysis for borrowing capacity of the national economy is explored using the system dynamics methods. The resource curse “vicious cycle” should be overridden by increasing total factor productivity and decreasing sovereign debt. The main findings of the article concern the nonlinear relationships in the national economic debt system and reveal the issues of the sovereign debt trap enhanced by the resource type of economic development. The model developed in this article reflects the main role of innovations (total factor productivity growth) in coming out of the “resource curse” debt trap. The hypothesis that sovereign debt can be eliminated arises from the possibility of autonomous national economic development and endogenous business cycle stabilization. Such a point of view allows to capture the important interrelationships between the national economic development and external borrowings due to the concept of policy resistance implementation. It is indicated that the complex systems modeling likelihood to develop the sovereign debt policy for demonstration of the negative impact of debt trap on economic development. In order to achieve the results, issued in the article, a basic control loop model was developed using reference mode data with appropriate initial structure model construction.

Keywords

• system dynamics
• sovereign debt
• debt resilience
• debt
• resource curse
• trap