Emerging Infectious Diseases (Feb 2018)

Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone

  • Felicity Fitzgerald,
  • Kevin Wing,
  • Asad Naveed,
  • Musa Gbessay,
  • J.C.G. Ross,
  • Francesco Checchi,
  • Daniel Youkee,
  • Mohamed Boie Jalloh,
  • David E. Baion,
  • Ayeshatu Mustapha,
  • Hawanatu Jah,
  • Sandra Lako,
  • Shefali Oza,
  • Sabah Boufkhed,
  • Reynold Feury,
  • Julia Bielicki,
  • Elizabeth Williamson,
  • Diana M. Gibb,
  • Nigel Klein,
  • Foday Sahr,
  • Shunmay Yeung

DOI
https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2402.171018
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 24, no. 2
pp. 311 – 319

Abstract

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We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictor (PEP) score. We collected data on all children <13 years of age admitted to 11 Ebola holding units in Sierra Leone during August 2014–March 2015 and performed multivariable logistic regression. Among 1,054 children, 309 (29%) were EVD positive and 697 (66%) EVD negative, with 48 (5%) missing. Contact history, conjunctivitis, and age were the strongest positive predictors for EVD. The PEP score had an area under receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80. A PEP score of 7/10 was 92% specific and 44% sensitive; 3/10 was 30% specific, 94% sensitive. The PEP score could correctly classify 79%–90% of children and could be used to facilitate triage into risk categories, depending on the sensitivity or specificity required.

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