METHODOLOGY FOR FORECASTING PJSC LUKOIL STOCK QUOTATIONS IN THE LONG TERM

Abstract

The article presents a methodology for forecasting stock quotes of the Russian oil company PJSC Lukoil in the long term. The methodology is based on the creation of a system of indicators that affect the performance of PJSC Lukoil in external economic conditions and are used to predict the economic efficiency of foreign oil companies. The system of indicators includes the following parameters: stock quotes of PJSC Lukoil; oil prices in the world energy market; reserves of oil and petroleum products in the United States; the number of active oil rigs in the United States; gross domestic product of China; American natural gas prices. The indicators are studied in a long-term time interval, trends in their change are determined, correlation coefficients between them are calculated. The purpose of the forecasting methodology is to make an investment decision on its basis, that is, to determine the feasibility of long-term investment in shares of Russian oil companies. This research topic is relevant because the Russian economy is plunging into economic and energy crisis, free pri-cing in the stock market led to its collapse in a bad geopolitical environment, with the help of state regulation of pricing in the securities market, Russian stock quotes are being restored. The Russian stock market is revi-ving thanks to expectations of economic recovery, which appeared with the intentions of our government officials to stimulate economic activity in the country. All this creates preconditions for long-term investments.

Keywords

• oil companies
• oil prices
• world energy market
• oil and petroleum products reserves
• drilling activity
• china's gross domestic product
• american natural gas prices