Soil Erosion under Future Climate Change Scenarios in a Semi-Arid Region

Abstract

The Mediterranean Region is presumed to be one of the locations where climate change will have the most effect. This impacts natural resources and increases the extent and severity of natural disasters, in general, and soil water erosion in particular. The focus of this research was to assess how climate change might affect the rate of soil erosion in a watershed in the High Atlas of Morocco. For this purpose, high-resolution precipitation and temperature data (12.5 × 12.5 km) were collected from EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations for the baseline period, 1976–2005, and future periods, 2030–2060 and 2061–2090. In addition, three maps were created for slopes, land cover, and geology, while the observed erosion process in the catchment was determined following field observations. The erosion potential model (EPM) was then used to assess the impacts of precipitation and temperature variations on the soil erosion rate. Until the end of the 21st century, the results showed a decrease in annual precipitation of −32% and −46% under RCP 4.5 for the periods 2030–2060 and 2061–2090, respectively, −28% and −56% under RCP 8.5 for the same periods, respectively, and a large increase in temperature of +2.8 °C and +4.1 °C for the RCP 4.5 scenario, and +3.1 °C and +5.2 °C for the RCP 8.5 scenario for the periods 2030–2060 and 2061–2090, respectively. The aforementioned changes are anticipated to significantly increase the soil erosion potential rate, by +97.11 m3/km2/year by 2060, and +76.06 m3/km2/year by 2090, under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The RCP 8.5 predicts a rise of +124.64 m3/km2/year for the period 2030–2060, but a drop of −123.82 m3/km2/year for the period 2060–2090.

Keywords

• soil erosion rates
• climate change
• RCP 4.5
• RCP 8.5
• EPM model
• High Atlas