Future Kuwait: Prosperity, Stagnation, or Decline?

Abstract

This study is a qualitative meta-analysis employing a critical interpretive synthesis to describe three equally probable future social and economic growth scenarios for the State of Kuwait over the next 15 years. The first scenario adheres to what we refer to as the “Sustainable Growth” Model, as stated by the United Nations Development Goals and the Kuwait Vision 2035 presented by His Majesty the Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah. As the polar opposite of the worst-case scenario, the next scenario is the ‘Mismanaged Resource-Based Autocracy’ Model, which reflects the negative. The third scenario, which we refer to as the ‘Equality of Result amongst Social Groups’ Model, falls between the first two. In order to avoid assigning blame for past deeds or pointing fingers, which could be unhelpful to a consensus-building process for necessary actions, we chose to use the pasts of other nations to forecast the future of the State of Kuwait. Singapore was the best fit for the first scenario, Venezuela for the second, and Lebanon for the third, according to our examination of recent socioeconomic histories. All of these nations attained independence about the same period as the State of Kuwait and share numerous other commonalities. The three future projections served as input variables for a bottom-up and top-down consensus-building procedure regarding utilitarian action in Kuwait.

Keywords

• scenarios
• public choice
• stakeholder theory
• scenario planning