The financial well-being of fruit farmers in Chile and Tunisia depends more on social and geographical factors than on climate change

Abstract

Abstract Climate change has significant implications for economically important crops, yet understanding its specific impact on farm financial wellbeing remains a challenging task. In this study we present self-reported perceptions of fruit farmers about their financial well-being when confronted with different climate change factors. We employed a combination of supervised machine learning and statistical modelling methods to analyze the data. The data collection was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 801 randomly selected cherry and peach farmers in Tunisia and Chile. Specific climate change factors, namely increases in temperature and reductions in precipitation, can have a regionally discernible effect on the self-perceived financial wellbeing of fruit farmers. This effect is less pronounced in Tunisia than in Chile. However, climate change is of lessor importance in predicting farm financial wellbeing, particularly for farms already doing well financially. Social assets, which include reliance on and trust in information sources, community and science, play an important role in increasing the probability of fruit farm financial wellbeing in both Tunisia and Chile. However, the most influential predictive factors differ between the two countries. In Chile, the location of the farm is the primary determinant of financial wellbeing, while in Tunisia it was the presence of social assets.