Technology availability, sector policies and behavioral change are complementary strategies for achieving net-zero emissions

Jessica Strefler; Leon Merfort; Nico Bauer; Miodrag Stevanović; Dennis Tänzler; Florian Humpenöder; David Klein; Gunnar Luderer; Michaja Pehl; Robert C. Pietzcker; Alexander Popp; Renato Rodrigues; Marianna Rottoli; Elmar Kriegler

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-52424-0

Nature Communications (Sep 2024)

Technology availability, sector policies and behavioral change are complementary strategies for achieving net-zero emissions

Jessica Strefler,
Leon Merfort,
Nico Bauer,
Miodrag Stevanović,
Dennis Tänzler,
Florian Humpenöder,
David Klein,
Gunnar Luderer,
Michaja Pehl,
Robert C. Pietzcker,
Alexander Popp,
Renato Rodrigues,
Marianna Rottoli,
Elmar Kriegler

Affiliations

Jessica Strefler: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Leon Merfort: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Nico Bauer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Miodrag Stevanović: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Dennis Tänzler: adelphi consult GmbH, Alt-Moabit 91
Florian Humpenöder: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
David Klein: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Gunnar Luderer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Michaja Pehl: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Robert C. Pietzcker: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Alexander Popp: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Renato Rodrigues: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Marianna Rottoli: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Elmar Kriegler: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52424-0
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 15, no. 1
pp. 1 – 10

Abstract

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Abstract In this study, we analyze the effects of technology availability, political coordination, and behavioral change on transformation pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union by 2050. We implemented an iterative stakeholder dialogue to co-design the scenarios that were calculated using a global multi-regional energy-economy-land-climate model. We find that in scenarios without behavioral change and with restriction of technologies, the target of greenhouse gas neutrality in the European Union cannot be reached. Already a target of 200 Mt CO2eq/yr requires CO2 prices above 100 €/tCO2 in 2030 across all sectors in all scenarios. The required CO2 price can increase to up to 450 €/tCO2 by 2030 if technologies are constrained, if no complementary regulatory measures are implemented, and if changes in consumer behavior towards a more sustainable lifestyle do not materialize.

Published in Nature Communications

ISSN: 2041-1723 (Online)
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Science
Website: https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

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