Economic evaluation of two-Strain covid-19 compartmental epidemic model with pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions and spatio-temporal patterns

Abstract

This paper is a novel attempt to analyze different aspects of a two-strain epidemic model. The paper introduces a novel approach to analyzing a two-strain epidemic model, emphasizing the efficacy of combining non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination, particularly against new variants. Additionally, it presents a unique spatio-temporal model to assess spatial distribution of infections, offering fresh insights into how spatial factors influence disease transmission and control. The analysis involves stability analysis(local and global) and optimal control. Time-dependent social/non-pharmaceutical interventions coupled with vaccination of the susceptible class in the presence of both strains are analyzed using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. The numerical section shows the behavior of the infected class with and without control, the control intensity trend for the scenario when only non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) are practiced for the original strain, and when both NPI and vaccination are incorporated with the emergence of the new strain. The evaluation of the Incremental average ratio (IAR) and Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) determines that NPI and vaccination as a combination is better and ideal in terms of costs incurred and effectiveness as a whole in averting infection in the presence of a new variant. Finally, we have also proposed a spatio-temporal pattern for the new strain model to analyze patterns using the finite element method by PDE Toolbox to show the effect of different initial conditions and geometry on the density of the infected population.

Keywords

• Covid-19
• Virus strain
• Dynamic analysis
• Optimal control
• ICER
• Pattern formation