ეკონომიკური პროფილი (Jul 2023)
THE INFLUENCE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS ON MODERN TENDENCIES OF BIRTH-RATE
Abstract
Due to its nature, the population is quite a dynamic and mobile phenomenon, which is manifested in its natural and mechanical movement. It is significantly influenced by many factors. It is significantly influenced by many factors. The influence of some of them is reflected in a short period of time when the balance of a number of indicators of the socio-economic structure of the population is disturbed. But there are such vital indicators, which in certain periods of time develop with similar tendencies based on existing and developed demographic events in previous years. Both the absolute and relative birth rates of the population remind us of the same basic, sharply defined signs during the formation of each new and subsequent generation. The result of its influence is not visible in the current statistical data of each year, but periodically, in an equal period of time, in the appropriate time and space, these traits are transmitted to the new generation without reduction (due to low birth rates, increase in migration processes, relatively less number of births due to severe social conditions in the reproductive age have fewer children throughout the country…) Due to this qualitative nature, the study of the factors affecting birth rates and demographic analysis is always a field of special interest for those interested in the study of demographic processes. It can be safely said that demographers make a "recipe" about the future sex-age structure of the population based on the natural movement of the population during such analysis. This feature of population mobility is a very important vector for the future programs and forecasts of the state. General birth rates are an approximate measure of the birth level, as the number of births is divided by the total population, which includes the population that is physiologically, due to youth or old age, unable to bear children, and the population that does. Therefore, the quantity of general birth rates depends on the age structure, i.e. On the number and share of young women of reproductive age (15-49 years) in the population. In order to more accurately describe the birth rate, demographers calculate a special birth rate. The special birth rate for 2021 was 57.5, which means that on average there are 57.5 newborns for every 1,000 women during the year. The birth rate of the population is determined by the demographic structure (sex, age, marriage and family structure) and reproductive behavior. Birth rate is a mass demographic process of the population. It is influenced by various kinds of external factors: natural-biological, socio-economic, psychological, existential-cultural, religious and others. It is interesting what trends characterize the main indicators of the population dynamics of today's Georgia. The National Statistical Service of Georgia published an official report on the main indicators of the natural and mechanical movement of the country's population. In our opinion, special attention is paid to a number of internal and external factors, which have a direct impact on the gender-age structure of the population. At the beginning of 2023, the population of the country has increased by 1.3% compared to the previous year and is equal to 3, 736,4 thousand people. The increase in the population of Georgia did not occur as a result of natural increase, it was caused by the factor of the Russia-Ukraine war and the wave of immigration. There was no real increase in the total population of the country. Moreover, the demographic situation created since the beginning of the 90s of the 20th century started and continues to intensively affect the reproduction of the country's population: decrease in the birth rate, decrease in the reproductive age population in the sex-age structure, demographic aging, increase in migration processes. Next to the negative tendencies of the natural movement of the population, migration is an equally important problem in the country. Especially in the last 5 years, the number of population in almost all regions of Georgia has significantly decreased as a result of migration outside the country. It is a pity that the main causes of the aggravation and complication of the demographic situation have been neglected for years, and the issue has become the subject of discussion only in a narrow circle of demographers and small groups of people interested in these issues. Very soon, along with such large and intensive migration processes in the country, the flow of immigrants will definitely begin to increase. Accordingly, an equally important problem arises - the alienation of Georgian lands. The study of the mentioned problems and the complex development of relevant measures should be done as soon as possible and necessarily at the governmental level, because stopping the current demographic situation and turning it towards positive trends is unthinkable without the state program of demographic development. There are two most important and vital problems facing Georgia and the Georgian nation. Reduction of birth rate and migration should become the main concern of the state.
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