Future scenarios of green hydrogen in the MENA countries: the case of Egypt

Abstract

Green hydrogen is a clean and renewable energy source that has the potential to play a major role in decarbonizing the global economy. Green hydrogen has become a promising decarbonization strategy for several industries, including transportation and manufacturing. The widespread use of green hydrogen technology still confronts several obstacles, such as high costs, a lack of infrastructure, and regulatory restrictions. The paper commences by examining the potential of green hydrogen production in MENA countries with a specific emphasis on Egypt as best practice example. It proceeds to identify the key drivers that will shape future scenarios of green hydrogen and outlines the best and worst-case scenarios for green hydrogen in MENA region by 2050. Through scenario analysis, the paper presents potential pathways for green hydrogen deployment in Egypt and the wider MENA countries, highlighting key drivers and potential barriers. According to the findings, Egypt emerges as pivotal player in driving the deployment of green hydrogen within the MENA region. The MENA region, rich in solar and wind resources and strategically located, emerges as a potent hub for green hydrogen production. Egypt, in particular, is at the forefront of this initiative, aiming to become a key exporter in the global hydrogen economy by leveraging its renewable resources, strategic projects, and conducive investment environment. The study employs a multifaceted methodology, integrating PEST analysis and identifying key drivers like renewable targets and technological advancements to assess green hydrogen’s potential in the MENA region, focusing on Egypt. It constructs best- and worst-case scenarios by 2050, utilizing these drivers to evaluate the implications of various influencing factors. In the best-case scenario, by 2050, Egypt aspires to be a pivotal player in the global green hydrogen economy, aiming for up to 8% market share. Through strategic investments, policy enhancements, and global partnerships, Egypt plans to become a major exporter, particularly to the European Union, aligning with global decarbonization goals. Comprehensive strategies are expected to drive economic prosperity, potentially increasing Egypt's GDP by $10-18 billion by 2025. Collaborations with global entities have fostered a robust infrastructure, enabling an integrated ecosystem for green hydrogen innovation and production.