Cancers (Feb 2020)
Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study
- Alda Cunha Rola,
- Azzam Taktak,
- Antonio Eleuteri,
- Helen Kalirai,
- Heinrich Heimann,
- Rumana Hussain,
- Laura J. Bonnett,
- Christopher J. Hill,
- Matthew Traynor,
- Martine J. Jager,
- Marina Marinkovic,
- Gregorius P.M. Luyten,
- Mehmet Dogrusöz,
- Emine Kilic,
- Annelies de Klein,
- Kyra Smit,
- Natasha M van Poppelen,
- Bertil E. Damato,
- Armin Afshar,
- Rudolf F. Guthoff,
- Björn O. Scheef,
- Vinodh Kakkassery,
- Svetlana Saakyan,
- Alexander Tsygankov,
- Carlo Mosci,
- Paolo Ligorio,
- Silvia Viaggi,
- Claudia H.D. Le Guin,
- Norbert Bornfeld,
- Nikolaos E. Bechrakis,
- Sarah E. Coupland
Affiliations
- Alda Cunha Rola
- Liverpool Ocular Oncology Research Group, Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L7 8TX, UK
- Azzam Taktak
- Liverpool Ocular Oncology Research Group, Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L7 8TX, UK
- Antonio Eleuteri
- Liverpool Ocular Oncology Research Group, Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L7 8TX, UK
- Helen Kalirai
- Liverpool Ocular Oncology Research Group, Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L7 8TX, UK
- Heinrich Heimann
- Liverpool Ocular Oncology Research Group, Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L7 8TX, UK
- Rumana Hussain
- Liverpool Ocular Oncology Research Group, Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L7 8TX, UK
- Laura J. Bonnett
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GL, UK
- Christopher J. Hill
- Liverpool Ocular Oncology Research Group, Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L7 8TX, UK
- Matthew Traynor
- Liverpool Bio-Innovation Hub Biobank, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L7 8TX, UK
- Martine J. Jager
- Department of Ophthalmology, Leiden University Medical Center, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
- Marina Marinkovic
- Department of Ophthalmology, Leiden University Medical Center, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
- Gregorius P.M. Luyten
- Department of Ophthalmology, Leiden University Medical Center, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
- Mehmet Dogrusöz
- Department of Ophthalmology, Leiden University Medical Center, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
- Emine Kilic
- Rotterdam Ocular Melanoma Study Group, Erasmus University Medical Center, 3008 AE Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Annelies de Klein
- Rotterdam Ocular Melanoma Study Group, Erasmus University Medical Center, 3008 AE Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Kyra Smit
- Rotterdam Ocular Melanoma Study Group, Erasmus University Medical Center, 3008 AE Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Natasha M van Poppelen
- Rotterdam Ocular Melanoma Study Group, Erasmus University Medical Center, 3008 AE Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Bertil E. Damato
- Ocular Oncology, Vitreoretinal Diseases & Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA
- Armin Afshar
- Ocular Oncology, Vitreoretinal Diseases & Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA
- Rudolf F. Guthoff
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of Rostock, D-18057 Rostock, Germany
- Björn O. Scheef
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of Rostock, D-18057 Rostock, Germany
- Vinodh Kakkassery
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of Rostock, D-18057 Rostock, Germany
- Svetlana Saakyan
- Ocular Oncology Department, Helmholtz Moscow Research Institute of Eye Diseases, 105062 Moscow, Russia
- Alexander Tsygankov
- Ocular Oncology Department, Helmholtz Moscow Research Institute of Eye Diseases, 105062 Moscow, Russia
- Carlo Mosci
- S.C. Oculistica Oncologica – Ocular Oncology Service, Ente ospedaliero Ospedali Galliera, 16128 Genova, Italy
- Paolo Ligorio
- S.C. Oculistica Oncologica – Ocular Oncology Service, Ente ospedaliero Ospedali Galliera, 16128 Genova, Italy
- Silvia Viaggi
- DISTAV-Department of Earth, Environment and Life Sciences, University of Genoa, 16132 Genova, Italy
- Claudia H.D. Le Guin
- Department of Ophthalmology, University Hospital Essen, University Duisburg-Essen, 45147 Essen, Germany
- Norbert Bornfeld
- Department of Ophthalmology, University Hospital Essen, University Duisburg-Essen, 45147 Essen, Germany
- Nikolaos E. Bechrakis
- Department of Ophthalmology, University Hospital Essen, University Duisburg-Essen, 45147 Essen, Germany
- Sarah E. Coupland
- Liverpool Ocular Oncology Research Group, Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L7 8TX, UK
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers12020477
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 12,
no. 2
p. 477
Abstract
Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3’s performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3’s ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers.
Keywords
- eye cancer
- uveal melanoma
- prognostic model
- lumpo3
- discrimination
- calibration
- c-statistics
- survival probabilities
- external centers.
