Predicting Kidney Transplantation Outcomes from Donor and Recipient Characteristics at Time Zero: Development of a Mobile Application for Nephrologists

Abstract

(1) Background: We report on the development of a predictive tool that can estimate kidney transplant survival at time zero. (2) Methods: This was an observational, retrospective study including 5078 transplants. Death-censored graft and patient survivals were calculated. (3) Results: Graft loss was associated with donor age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.021, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.018–1.024, p p p p p 60 years, HR 5.507, 95% CI 4.524–6.704, p p p p < 0.001). The C-statistics for graft and patient survival were 0.666 (95% CI: 0.646, 0.686) and 0.726 (95% CI: 0.710–0.742), respectively. (4) Conclusions: We developed a mobile app to estimate survival at time zero, which can guide decisions for organ allocation.

Keywords

• kidney transplantation
• predictive model
• graft failure
• survival prediction
• mobile app